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The Latino Vote
 Are Latinos Pro-Democrat or Anti-Republican?
An examination of party registration and allegiance in the 2000 elections and beyond
By Luis Arteaga, Associate Director/ Latino Issues Forum
Summary
This report attempts to address important questions and perceptions about Latino voters and party allegiance. The report concludes that Latino voters in California are willing to cross-party lines, mix agendas between traditional Republican and Democrat party platforms, and seem more drawn to issues rather than party allegiance. This fluidity is much more evident in Latino Republicans. Moreover, Latino Republicans vote at lower rates than Democrats. Both parties need to re-think party priorities to not only capture this vote but also maintain long term party allegiance. Both parties also need to make a concerted effort to engage voters since the overall voting trend among all voters is negative.
Introduction
The meteoric rise of the Latino vote over the last decade has led to an unprecedented level of attention on Latino voters by candidates, campaigns and researchers. The quality and quantity of media coverage has also improved dramatically as Latinos have moved from a last minute election story into the mainstream consciousness.
This rapid change has candidates and campaigns struggling to understand and capture this new electorate for three primary reasons:
• Latinos, as a whole, are the largest and fastest growing ethnic group in the U.S.
• Latino registration and voting rates are increasing while the national trend is down.
• Latinos are concentrated in the most populous states which comprise 62% of the electoral college votes needed to become President: California, New York, Texas, Florida and Illinois.
Despite registering largely as Democrats, Republicans feel they have an opportunity to make strides with this voting population. Many Republicans also feel that it is imperative that they make strides or face a generation of anti-Republican sentiment among Latinos. What is the potential for Latinos to vote Republican even though a majority are registered Democrat? Are there social and ideological differences between Latino Democrats and Republicans and, if so, what are the implications of these differences? This report is an attempt to answer these questions and provide some guidance on what this means for the 2000 election and beyond.
It is important to note that the conclusions are based only on California Latino voters which are distinct from Latino voters in other states.
Methodology
Latino Issues Forum (LIF) sponsored a telephone survey in February 2000 to provide greater clarity on these questions. The survey of 750 Latino registered voters in California included 128 interviews in Spanish. The survey was conducted by Godbe Research and Analysis, a political research firm based in Half Moon Bay, California.
Who are the Latino Democrats and Latino Republicans?
While there are vast generalizations about party affiliation and personal characteristics, such as income and age, how do these factors play out among the Latino electorate?
Party Registration: An overwhelming number of Latinos in California are registered Democrat. At nearly 4 to 1, Latino Democrats far outnumber Republican registrants. There also as many Latino voters registered to a third party or have declined to state a party affiliation as those who registered Republican.
Age
There is a perception that Republicans are older and wealthier than Democrats. However, this is not reflected in the Latino electorate. The largest segment of Latino Republicans is under 30. This is good news for Republicans if they are building on this base for the future, but this is also the age segment that is least likely to vote.
Income
The Latino Democrat is concentrated in the lower to middle income brackets. This facilitates targeted campaigns and messages on "working families". However, the Latino Republicans show a split with 13% earning $20,000-30,000 and an equal percentage earning $70,000-100,000. This makes campaigning as a Republican a greater challenge, having to reach out to both ends of the economic spectrum and craft a working class and upper class agenda.
Date of Registration
A major factor in trying to characterize the Latino vote is the "before or after 1994" demarcation. Political analysts often point to 1994 as the year when a major shift occurred in Latino voter attitudes and activism. The 1994 election year marked the high point of anti-immigrant and anti-Latino policies best embodied in the re-election campaign of Governor Pete Wilson. This year also included state initiatives such as Proposition 187 (the anti-immigrant initiative), as well as national efforts to eliminate immigrant public benefits led by Republicans in Congress. The survey found that Latino Democrats registered to vote after 1994 at a higher rate than Republicans.
Place of Birth
Another common perception of Latino voters is that they are overwhelmingly immigrant or Spanish speaking and therefore anti-Republican. However, place of birth makes little difference in party registration. Contrary to many perceptions, Latino party affiliation does not follow predictable patterns among age, income, date of registration or place of birth. This makes appealing to Latino voters especially challenging because Latinos are not a monolithic group. As an electorate, they are also distinct from non-Latino Republicans and Democrats.
How DOES Party Affiliation AFFECT Candidate Appeal?
Q1. If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate for Congress?
In voting for a member of Congress, only 9% of Democrats would cross party lines and vote for a Republican or other party while 38% of Republicans were leaning toward a Democrat or other party. This demonstrates that while 18% of Latino voters are Republican, a large percentage would vote against party lines for members of Congress. It also illustrates the stronger party allegiance among Latino voters toward Democratic candidates.
Q2. Would you vote for a candidate who was a Caucasian Democrat or would the information make no impact on your decision to vote?
Both party voters would vote for an Anglo Democrat. Although Republicans showed a higher resistance to vote for a Democrat, they also show the highest indifference toward a Democratic candidate (55%).
Q3. Would you vote for a candidate who was a Latino Republican or would the information make no impact on your decision to vote?
Both party voters would vote for a Latino Republican, with 27% of Democrats inclined to say "No".
Are there political issues that define the parties?
Two issues that are often seen as definitive of the parties are abortion and affirmative action with Democrats and Republicans diametrically opposed. Latino voters are portrayed as being "conservative" on issues such as abortion and "liberal" on issues such as affirmative action.
Q4. Would you vote for a candidate who was a Pro Choice Latino or would the information make no impact on your decision to vote?
When asked the question of a "pro choice" Latino candidate, 40% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans would vote for this candidate. Among Republicans, 43% said it would not make an impact.
Q5. Would you vote for a candidate who was a Pro Affirmative Action Non-Latino or would the information make no impact on your decision to vote?
Among Latino Republicans, only 11% would not vote for a pro affirmative action non- Latino with 40% saying that they would. Even though many Democratic candidates remain divided on the issue, 51% of Latinos would vote for a pro-affirmative action candidate. Our survey also found almost unanimous agreement on major policy issues facing the state. Voters from both parties ranked "Reducing Crime", "Improving Public Education" and "Improving Health Care Access" in the same order with the same intensity. Despite party registration, priorities remain the same for both party voters.
Are Latinos Pro-Democrat or Anti-Republican?
The Republican party has struggled to make some headway into the Latino Democratic base with the 2000 election year as the high point of this effort. A question commonly raised is "Are Latinos pro-Democrat" or simply "anti-Republican."
In order to assess this question, we tested how Latinos would respond to a choice between two candidates - one with a typical Republican platform and one with a traditional Democratic platform without the party labels. We also wanted to test the identity of the messenger. Would we see any differences if Latino voters had to chose between a Latino and non-Latino who had two different agendas? Would the issues and surname influence their decision?
• Smith says state and local governments can do a great deal to improve the quality of life for Latinos in California. Smith believes in HMO reforms, improving public education and providing more affordable housing.
• Hernandez says state and local governments have too much power to regulate individuals and community life for Latinos in California. Hernandez believes in traditional family values, reducing taxes and increasing job opportunities and reducing crime.
Does Smith or Hernandez come closest to representing your views?
A majority of Republicans and a large percentage of Democrats (46%) chose Hernandez. The Republican label still serves as a motivation to vote against a Republican candidate even though some elements of the agenda may be attractive for Latinos. While many Latino Democrats earlier (27%) said they would not vote for a Republican, there was some affinity among Latino Democrats with either Hernandez‘ surname or his agenda or the combination.
To Vote or Not to Vote
In order to fully assess the differences among party registrants, it is important to look at voting propensity. If both party registrants vote at the same rate then this will negate the influence of Republicans. However, if Republicans vote at a much higher rate they can make up some ground on the Democrats. How active are Latino Democrats in comparison to Latino Republicans? When we compare voting propensity, over half of Latino Republicans (52%) have either not voted or only voted once out of the last seven elections. This does not bode well for the Republicans who have managed to attract a base of voters who are young, yet are not inclined to vote. The inexperience of Latino voters is significant since most campaigns only target "likely voters". This sends a negative signal to those "unlikely voters" that their votes are insignificant. Campaign mailers and phone calls are important reminders, motivations, and sources of information. Leaving Latinos out has the potential to alienate Latino voters and reverse or stall the progress that Latino voters have made over the past six years.
Implications
This report illustrates the complex nature of the Latino vote and the challenges for both parties in attracting and expanding their base. Both parties will have to refine their message to be inclusive of Latino priorities. As a younger, lower-income voting base, Latino voters feel a more intense urgency on issues of health care access, public school education and reducing crime. They are therefore more likely to demand reform and improvements whereas many candidates tend to offer incremental change. This has the potential to alienate and aggravate Latino voters who are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their understanding of politics.
Both parties also have to make a concerted effort to register Latinos and encourage them to vote. This would show a good faith effort to take the Latino voter seriously and put aside differences to increase participation. As a start, both parties should make greater efforts to improve the naturalization process for non-citizens as well as motivate young Latino voters. This could be a great bi-partisan message and campaign.
For Democrats, the challenge will be to prove that they are not taking the Latino vote for granted and provide demonstrable results as to how they are unique and can address issues specific to the Latino community. Democrats in California have defined themselves by who they are not - not Republican. This has been enough to give them large leads in recent partisan elections. However, Latinos in the survey expressed a willingness to vote for a Latino Republican both implicitly and explicitly. For Republicans, the challenge will be to create a new identity within their party and away from the anti-immigrant agenda of the some wings of the party. This will not be easy since many in the Republican party would like to see a narrower policy agenda and not a broadening of their tent. At its national convention, the Republican Party has clearly made "diversity" a priority. The California Republican Party has made great strides to change the face of the party by promoting Latino Republican candidates. Latino candidates for both federal and state office are at record levels. Eleven Congressional races have at least one Latino candidate. Four of these races have Latino Republican candidates and two races have Latino Democrat vs. Latino Republican. This is a positive step for the Republican party and California politics. However, it is clear that the Republican Party needs to couple this with a bold agenda that may alienate some "old guard" Republicans but demonstrate that it can incorporate Latino priorities with Republican priorities.
Conclusion
The rise of the Latino vote has significantly changed the tone, content and communication media of California politics. While there has been much to celebrate, there remains decades of political neglect that all voters will have to address in the coming decades (See Baldassare, California in the New Millennium). Latino voters have the potential to push for significant improvements in issues such as education and health care. Latino voters also have the potential to follow the dominant model of apathy and complacency. A re-emphasis on voting, civic participation, and public service by our schools, universities and community organizations can help stem this negative trend. This will not be an easy endeavor but it is a necessary one to change the direction and destiny of California.
Acknowledgments
Latino Issues Forum would like to thank Bryan Godbe, Alison Mulka and Rick Li of Godbe Research and Analysis for their high level of professionalism in conducting this survey. We also would like to thank Guillermo Rodríguez of Pacific Gas & Electric Company for assisting in the design and funding for this survey. Special appreciation to Alejanda Herrera of LIF for her assistance in editing and content analysis.
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